The Venezuelan government has made moves towards annexing Guyana’s Essequibo region, an oil-rich jungle and offshore territory that account for two thirds of Guyana’s landmass. In a referendum held last Sunday, Venezuelans voted in favor of creating a new Venezuelan state to be called Guayana Esequiba, although observers say voter turnout was far smaller than the government claimed. 

On Tuesday, the Maduro administration announced a law to annex the territory, which is home to 125,000 English-speaking Guyanese residents, and has begun to amass troops on the border. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali told The Associated Press that he was taking “a number of precautionary measures” to defend his country, including connecting with allies to build “a regional response.”

Days before the referendum, the United Nations’ International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela to “refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute.” Controversy over the 61,600-square-mile border territory along the Essequibo River dates back to an 1899 agreement signed when Guyana was still part of the British Empire. In recent years, Venezuela has reactivated its claim to the Essequibo region after some 11 billion barrels of oil and gas were discovered along its coast. (For more, see NACLA’s recent print article on Guyana’s oil bonanza by Janette Bulkan, Roshini Kempadoo, and D. Alissa Trotz).

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said Tuesday he would “immediately” begin “to grant operating licenses for the exploration and exploitation of oil, gas, and mines in the entire area of our Essequibo.” He also announced that he would grant Venezuelan citizenship to Guyanese residents living in the territory, and require the energy companies already operating there, such as ExxonMobil, to leave within the next three months. 

​​​​U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken affirmed support for Guyana’s sovereignty in a call with Guyanese President Ali on Wednesday. In a statement issued the same day, the Venezuelan government strongly condemned Ali’s requests for support from the U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) and other military partners, leading to Southcom conducting flight operations in coordination with the Guyanese military on Thursday. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry called the presence of Southcom in the Essequibo territory a “reckless” threat to regional stability by “opening the possibility for an imperial power to install military bases.”

Also on Wednesday, Venezuela’s attorney general ordered the arrest of 15 prominent opposition figures, accusing them of taking money from ExxonMobil in order to “sabotage” the government’s referendum on Essequibo. The move deteriorates prospects for free and fair elections that the government had agreed to hold in 2024 in exchange for the easing U.S. economic sanctions. 

The Venezuelan government has said that more than 10.5 million people voted in last weekend’s referendum, with 97.8 percent of voters approving the annexation of the Essequibo territory. Guyanese intelligence, however, suggests that actual voter turnout was less than 1.5 million people. “The turnout appeared so underwhelming,” reported Luke Taylor for The Guardian, “that the Venezuelan government has been widely accused by analysts of falsifying the results.”

Writing for World Politics Review, James Bosworth notes that Venezuela’s claims over the disputed territory constitute a “rally ‘round the flag” effort to boost Maduro’s popularity and gain leverage with the international community. He also notes that despite the bravado, the chances of an actual invasion of Guyana by Venezuela are slim. “If Maduro invades Guyana, it will likely be the last thing he does,” writes Bosworth. “The hemisphere would be against him. His own allies would condemn him. And the U.S. defense establishment, as stretched as it is, could easily manage the defense of Guyana without diverting anything from its many other global challenges.”