Bolivians head to the polls on Sunday amid an intense economic crisis, frequent protests, and political in-fighting within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. After nearly two decades of left-wing governance, most pundits expect the right to return to power. With talk of a structural adjustment package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already underway, such a shift could further intensify the economic strain for Bolivians who are facing significant hardship. The country’s economic crisis looms large for residents casting their vote for president, vice president, and parliament. Inflation has reached a four-decade high, while dwindling dollar reserves have made it more costly to import fuel and foodstuffs, leading to constant shortages and widespread protests. The government’s costly fuel subsidies—targeted for drastic cuts by all candidates, including those on the left—are another flashpoint. In a context of rising poverty and mounting anger over gas shortages, such cuts would cause immense harm. While all candidates agree that structural reforms are necessary, every right-wing contender supports an IMF-led structural adjustment programme, a striking reversal given how the organization’s failed policies in the early 2000s paved the way for the left’s rise. Indeed, the policies responsible for the country’s massive economic success under former president Evo Morales were in direct opposition to those promoted by the IMF. Under Morales, who led the country from 2006 until his ousting in a coup in 2019, the GDP per capita increased 50 percent, unemployment was nearly halved, poverty was reduced by 42 percent, and public investment ballooned. Leading the right-wing pack is Samuel Doria Medina, the current front-runner, one of Bolivia’s wealthiest men, and the former vice presidential candidate alongside the post-coup leader Jeañine Anez. Trailing Medina by a narrow margin and running to his right is Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a close ally of former dictator-turned-elected president Hugo Banzer, who led the country for one year after Banzer stepped down in 2001. Although four other right-wing candidates are also vying for the presidency, polls indicate that Medina and Quiroga will face each other in a runoff. After El Alto mayor Eva Copa withdrew from the race, only two-left wing candidates remain among the eight total contenders: Eduardo Castillo, backed by current President Luis Arce and the official MAS apparatus, and Andrónico Rodríguez, the leader of the Senate. Castillo, who served as Arce’s Minister of the Interior and oversaw crackdowns on protests, has failed to gain traction. Rodríguez, on the other hand, is a more serious contender. Like Morales, he is a former leader of Cochabamba’s powerful coca growers’ union and has advocated for a strategy of “intelligent austerity”: rejecting IMF loans in favor of closer ties with the BRICS nations and a gradual cut in subsidies. Though his poll numbers have fallen precipitously in recent weeks, analysts speculate that he could still benefit from the large number of undecided voters. An unprecedented number of voters have indicated they will vote “nulo”— submitting empty or spoiled ballots. This can be attributed directly to Morales, who has called for the null vote from his base in the Chapare, a coca-growing stronghold where he has remained for months to avoid arrest on statutory rape charges he claims are politically motivated. Morales was barred from running in May when the Constitutional Court upheld a lower court’s ruling that a president can serve no more than two terms. Evo’s attempt to nullify the vote—a symbolic gesture given that spoiled and blank ballots are removed from the final count—has drawn comparisons to Ecuador’s 2021 election, when a similar push by the Indigenous movement contributed decisively to a right-wing victory. The bleak outlook for Bolivia’s left represents a stark turnaround in a country once celebrated for its economic “miracle,” historic levels of redistribution, and groundbreaking plurinational political formations. The current crisis, while sharing features with the downturns faced by other Pink Tide governments, has both grown out of and worsened the ruling coalition’s deep divisions, fueling intense political polarization, violent protests, and a resurgent right. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, or a 10-point lead over the runner-up, the two leading candidates will proceed to a runoff on October 19. |
